To celebrate the 2013 holiday season we asked the Tuck Community to recommend some great reads. (Perhaps a good gift for the business executive in your life?)
Recommended by Two Tuck School of Business Professors:
"Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future."
From the Tuck Community:
@TuckExecEd - Mintzberg's "Simply Managing - What Managers Do - and Can Do Better" - full of valuable ideas @BKpub